Chambray, perhaps
In two weeks time today, one way or another I am going to have an immense hangover.
If the Coalition retain power I will drink an immense amount of wine, cry, pass out and wake up the next morning in immense pain.
If the ALP regain power I will drink an immense amount of wine, run up and down the street cheering, pass out and wake up the next morning in immense pain.
Of course if the first scenario plays out the hangover will last another 3-4 years.
Hangovers aside, I thought now might be a good time to make an assessment of the state of play in this phenomenally exciting federal election and place some bets.
In a post I made in June I wrote of my suspicions of the Coalition returning to power on the back of a fear campaign that revolved around Labor's fetish for unionism. At the time I thought they were gaining some real traction on this front, however this was before Rudd countered with his metooism wedge - the wedge which has at least superficially put a stopper in the election door that would otherwise have been shut. Or so the theory goes.
And so it goes that we have this situation where Rudd's straight bat appears to have kept the polls steady-as-she-goes for the ALP. If you can't beat them with original ideas, just copy and throw in a few additional taunts of fresh blood required and away you go, is the logic. But it's not enough.
For quite some time I have been opining that Australians are simply taunting Howard when they are being polled. The polls are suggesting the election will be a whitewash, but for perhaps the first time ever I agree with quite a few of the Liberal party frontbenchers - the vote is soft.
Australian voters are revelling in the pork barelling, and wanting to see what more they can get out of a very anxious Howard and Costello. With the numbers up to somewhere around $4k proposed spend per Australian since the election began Australians are finally getting a taste of the prosperity that has come at their expense. And they like it a lot.
Consequently, they will continue to punish Howard in the polls—treating him like some sort of horrifically ugly piñata— but come election day they will vote Howard back in. The senate will be returned to the people (although with Howard-lite running the ALP that won't mean a lot) but the Liberal party will have three more years to roll out the conservative manifesto that both Howard and Costello have been polishing since they came to power.
This is a real doomsday scenario for Australians, although only a marginal few seem to understand it. Or if they do, they still figure that the Coalition are still a safer bet.
The chorus of an old Hall and Oates song comes to mind:
Predictions, I've got a million. Let's look at the two scenarios - a Coalition federal government and a Labor federal government - from a Liberal standpoint.
If the Coalition return to power John Howard will be ejected against his will within twelve months (while looking consensual to the act in public). He's been long on the nose in the party rooms and the more time they give his successor to become popular, the better.
In this twelve month period extensive, private internal polling will reveal that the country despises Peter Costello with a vehemence that, if harnessed, could reverse the orbit of Jupiter. The Liberal party, intellectual giants that they are, in the face of massive, continually building evidence will still flip flop over the best choice of leader. There will be considerable infighting before it is revealed gently/leaked to the public that Peter Costello, Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson have all got their hats in the ring. They will be clear that Peter Costello is the rightful contender and that this process of choice is purely going through the motions. Meanwhile they will spend a fortune watching, listening and analysing every word of public discourse to try and distill our sense of the matter.
To cut a reasonably long story to a bite-size portion, in the end Malcolm Turnbull will triumph with Nelson as treasurer. Peter Costello will implode like the miserable sphere of aging gas that he is. He will leave politics and will not be heard from until the release of his ultimately useless, extremely petty attempt at a Lathamesque tell all, along with impotent, friendly-guy, I-would-have-been-better-but-never-mind public relations (big smiles, family by his side, light coloured shirt no tie, freshly-conditioned, whispy hair). He will die a quick death in the media and the book will be in the Angus and Robertson discount bin inside 8 weeks.
On the flipside, if the polls stay true and Labor wins, the news won't get any better for Pete.
Howard would be in the garden tending to his weeds before any of us are even half way through our celebrations. No matter what is written about him, and there will be a great deal, he will feel that he was, and still is, the best thing to ever have happened to Australia.
Peter Costello will be installed as leader of the Opposition. For a fortnight. Well, this is a tad optimistic, let's say a month. Then the exact same scenario that I have described above will play out, except it will be messy, public and the words will be visceral and destructive. The Liberal party will explode like the most spectacular of supernovas and the only way they will have any chance of regaining government within the next 2-3 elections will be through Malcolm Turnbull. Eventually they will see this and install him as leader.
It will not be happy days for the Liberals and Mal will have his work cut out for him. If his party united behind him they may have a shot in 2013. By then, though, Australia will be in such a dire mess with energy stores and climate change effects they may not want to be leading. They may, in fact, throw elections to bide their time.
Any which way, there are at least two noteworthy positives. One is that Howard is gone inside twelve months. The second is that Peter Costello will never be prime minister of this country. Either of those things, or both, will not be as effective as a Berocca on the morning of the 25th of November if things go south, but in time we will heal.
If the Coalition retain power I will drink an immense amount of wine, cry, pass out and wake up the next morning in immense pain.
If the ALP regain power I will drink an immense amount of wine, run up and down the street cheering, pass out and wake up the next morning in immense pain.
Of course if the first scenario plays out the hangover will last another 3-4 years.
Hangovers aside, I thought now might be a good time to make an assessment of the state of play in this phenomenally exciting federal election and place some bets.
In a post I made in June I wrote of my suspicions of the Coalition returning to power on the back of a fear campaign that revolved around Labor's fetish for unionism. At the time I thought they were gaining some real traction on this front, however this was before Rudd countered with his metooism wedge - the wedge which has at least superficially put a stopper in the election door that would otherwise have been shut. Or so the theory goes.
And so it goes that we have this situation where Rudd's straight bat appears to have kept the polls steady-as-she-goes for the ALP. If you can't beat them with original ideas, just copy and throw in a few additional taunts of fresh blood required and away you go, is the logic. But it's not enough.
For quite some time I have been opining that Australians are simply taunting Howard when they are being polled. The polls are suggesting the election will be a whitewash, but for perhaps the first time ever I agree with quite a few of the Liberal party frontbenchers - the vote is soft.
Australian voters are revelling in the pork barelling, and wanting to see what more they can get out of a very anxious Howard and Costello. With the numbers up to somewhere around $4k proposed spend per Australian since the election began Australians are finally getting a taste of the prosperity that has come at their expense. And they like it a lot.
Consequently, they will continue to punish Howard in the polls—treating him like some sort of horrifically ugly piñata— but come election day they will vote Howard back in. The senate will be returned to the people (although with Howard-lite running the ALP that won't mean a lot) but the Liberal party will have three more years to roll out the conservative manifesto that both Howard and Costello have been polishing since they came to power.
This is a real doomsday scenario for Australians, although only a marginal few seem to understand it. Or if they do, they still figure that the Coalition are still a safer bet.
The chorus of an old Hall and Oates song comes to mind:
You're out of touchFour years from now things won't be so amusing.
I'm out of time
But I'm out of my head when you're not around
Predictions, I've got a million. Let's look at the two scenarios - a Coalition federal government and a Labor federal government - from a Liberal standpoint.
If the Coalition return to power John Howard will be ejected against his will within twelve months (while looking consensual to the act in public). He's been long on the nose in the party rooms and the more time they give his successor to become popular, the better.
In this twelve month period extensive, private internal polling will reveal that the country despises Peter Costello with a vehemence that, if harnessed, could reverse the orbit of Jupiter. The Liberal party, intellectual giants that they are, in the face of massive, continually building evidence will still flip flop over the best choice of leader. There will be considerable infighting before it is revealed gently/leaked to the public that Peter Costello, Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson have all got their hats in the ring. They will be clear that Peter Costello is the rightful contender and that this process of choice is purely going through the motions. Meanwhile they will spend a fortune watching, listening and analysing every word of public discourse to try and distill our sense of the matter.
To cut a reasonably long story to a bite-size portion, in the end Malcolm Turnbull will triumph with Nelson as treasurer. Peter Costello will implode like the miserable sphere of aging gas that he is. He will leave politics and will not be heard from until the release of his ultimately useless, extremely petty attempt at a Lathamesque tell all, along with impotent, friendly-guy, I-would-have-been-better-but-never-mind public relations (big smiles, family by his side, light coloured shirt no tie, freshly-conditioned, whispy hair). He will die a quick death in the media and the book will be in the Angus and Robertson discount bin inside 8 weeks.
On the flipside, if the polls stay true and Labor wins, the news won't get any better for Pete.
Howard would be in the garden tending to his weeds before any of us are even half way through our celebrations. No matter what is written about him, and there will be a great deal, he will feel that he was, and still is, the best thing to ever have happened to Australia.
Peter Costello will be installed as leader of the Opposition. For a fortnight. Well, this is a tad optimistic, let's say a month. Then the exact same scenario that I have described above will play out, except it will be messy, public and the words will be visceral and destructive. The Liberal party will explode like the most spectacular of supernovas and the only way they will have any chance of regaining government within the next 2-3 elections will be through Malcolm Turnbull. Eventually they will see this and install him as leader.
It will not be happy days for the Liberals and Mal will have his work cut out for him. If his party united behind him they may have a shot in 2013. By then, though, Australia will be in such a dire mess with energy stores and climate change effects they may not want to be leading. They may, in fact, throw elections to bide their time.
Any which way, there are at least two noteworthy positives. One is that Howard is gone inside twelve months. The second is that Peter Costello will never be prime minister of this country. Either of those things, or both, will not be as effective as a Berocca on the morning of the 25th of November if things go south, but in time we will heal.
Labels: domestic politics
posted by W at 12:11 pm
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